NFLPS: Preseason first full week offers profitable angles
I’ve heard this famous quote before: “The past is behind, learn from it. The future is ahead, prepare for it. The present is here, live it.” If you analyze the quote in terms of how it relates to sports betting, I would think it is pushing us to study pas
2009-08-13
I’ve heard this famous quote before: “The past is behind, learn from it. The future is ahead, prepare for it. The present is here, live it.” If you analyze the quote in terms of how it relates to sports betting, I would think it is pushing us to study past trends and stats, then capitalize on them by executing winning wagers now and in the future. With that thought in mind, I went back and dug through the results of the first full week of preseason football since 2000 and was able to uncover some definitive betting angles that have developed, simply based on pointspreads, totals, and their movements. Take a look and see if you can’t put these trends to good use this weekend. Then head over to the LIVE ODDS page to get in on the action.
The first thing you’ll want to acknowledge about the first week of the exhibition season is that in general, it’s not a good idea to lay points. After all, how do you take comfort in backing a favorite when you’re not even sure how into winning that team will be. The other factor to consider is that most of the games are lower scoring. Throw out all stats from last year’s regular season, and understand that these teams are only in the beginning stages of their preparation for the regular season. Most of the offenses only began working against the defense days ago.
Here are some more specific pointspread trends and the games they’ll be affecting this weekend:
1. Overall, road teams own a 72-60-9 ATS (54.5%) record in the preseason’s first full week since 2000.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Washington, New England, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina.
2. Road Underdogs of 4-points or more are 9-10 SU but 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in the first full week of the preseason since ’00.
* Projected plays for ’09 – St. Louis
3. Over the last nine years, Road Underdogs of +1 to +3.5 points are 40-55 SU but 50-38-7 ATS (56.8%) in the upcoming week of the preseason.
* Projected plays for ’09 - Washington, New England, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina.
4. Home Underdogs are 13-11 SU & 14-8-2 ATS (63.6%) in the preseason’s official Week 1 since 2000.
* Projected plays for ’09 - None
5. When the line has moved toward the home team, the opposing road team owns a 25-16-1 ATS mark in the first week of the preseason since ’00.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Dallas, New England, St. Louis, Chicago, Atlanta.
6. When the line has moved 2-points or more, the “betting public” owns a record of just 16-19 ATS (45.7%) in the first full week of the preseason since ’00. In other words, go against the money.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Dallas, Atlanta.
7. Concerning totals, since 2000, in the first full week of the NFL’s exhibition season, UNDER’s own an edge of 81-59 (57.9%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – ALL GAMES UNDER
8. In past games of the opening week of the preseason with totals set at 33.5 or less, the UNDER owns a record of 22-10 (68.8%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – Play UNDER in Washington-Baltimore, St. Louis-NY Jets, Chicago-Buffalo, Jacksonville-Miami, and Carolina-NY Giants
9. In games with a total movement either way in the first full week of the preseason since ’00, the UNDER is 65-45 for 59.0%.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Play UNDER in all games but Houston-Kansas City as of Wednesday afternoon.
10. Over the last nine years, when the total has moved 2-points or more prior to game time of any opening week preseason game, the UNDER is 13-10 (56.5%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – NONE as of 8/12, 5:15 PM.
Keep in mind, all of the trends denoting line movements, are as of data on Wednesday, August 12th at 5:15 PM CT. Be sure to follow the consensus LIVE ODDS on StatFox for the latest updates if you choose to follow these trends this weekend.
For more on all of this week’s games, see the GAME MATCHUPS page.
2009-08-13
I’ve heard this famous quote before: “The past is behind, learn from it. The future is ahead, prepare for it. The present is here, live it.” If you analyze the quote in terms of how it relates to sports betting, I would think it is pushing us to study past trends and stats, then capitalize on them by executing winning wagers now and in the future. With that thought in mind, I went back and dug through the results of the first full week of preseason football since 2000 and was able to uncover some definitive betting angles that have developed, simply based on pointspreads, totals, and their movements. Take a look and see if you can’t put these trends to good use this weekend. Then head over to the LIVE ODDS page to get in on the action.
The first thing you’ll want to acknowledge about the first week of the exhibition season is that in general, it’s not a good idea to lay points. After all, how do you take comfort in backing a favorite when you’re not even sure how into winning that team will be. The other factor to consider is that most of the games are lower scoring. Throw out all stats from last year’s regular season, and understand that these teams are only in the beginning stages of their preparation for the regular season. Most of the offenses only began working against the defense days ago.
Here are some more specific pointspread trends and the games they’ll be affecting this weekend:
1. Overall, road teams own a 72-60-9 ATS (54.5%) record in the preseason’s first full week since 2000.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Washington, New England, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina.
2. Road Underdogs of 4-points or more are 9-10 SU but 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in the first full week of the preseason since ’00.
* Projected plays for ’09 – St. Louis
3. Over the last nine years, Road Underdogs of +1 to +3.5 points are 40-55 SU but 50-38-7 ATS (56.8%) in the upcoming week of the preseason.
* Projected plays for ’09 - Washington, New England, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina.
4. Home Underdogs are 13-11 SU & 14-8-2 ATS (63.6%) in the preseason’s official Week 1 since 2000.
* Projected plays for ’09 - None
5. When the line has moved toward the home team, the opposing road team owns a 25-16-1 ATS mark in the first week of the preseason since ’00.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Dallas, New England, St. Louis, Chicago, Atlanta.
6. When the line has moved 2-points or more, the “betting public” owns a record of just 16-19 ATS (45.7%) in the first full week of the preseason since ’00. In other words, go against the money.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Dallas, Atlanta.
7. Concerning totals, since 2000, in the first full week of the NFL’s exhibition season, UNDER’s own an edge of 81-59 (57.9%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – ALL GAMES UNDER
8. In past games of the opening week of the preseason with totals set at 33.5 or less, the UNDER owns a record of 22-10 (68.8%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – Play UNDER in Washington-Baltimore, St. Louis-NY Jets, Chicago-Buffalo, Jacksonville-Miami, and Carolina-NY Giants
9. In games with a total movement either way in the first full week of the preseason since ’00, the UNDER is 65-45 for 59.0%.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Play UNDER in all games but Houston-Kansas City as of Wednesday afternoon.
10. Over the last nine years, when the total has moved 2-points or more prior to game time of any opening week preseason game, the UNDER is 13-10 (56.5%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – NONE as of 8/12, 5:15 PM.
Keep in mind, all of the trends denoting line movements, are as of data on Wednesday, August 12th at 5:15 PM CT. Be sure to follow the consensus LIVE ODDS on StatFox for the latest updates if you choose to follow these trends this weekend.
For more on all of this week’s games, see the GAME MATCHUPS page.
NFLPS: Preseason first full week offers profitable angles News
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