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May 18th NFL news ... Welcome to Bet on Football online, the home for football handicappers.
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Whether you prefer betting on the college game or the NFL, this site will assist you with scoring a profit on football.
By logging on daily throughout the football season, you will be up to date with all of the important news, trends and key statistics in order to increase your winnings over the long haul.
Welcome to betonfootballonline.net, the home for football handicappers.
Whether you prefer betting on the college game or the NFL, this site will assist you with scoring a profit on football.
By logging on daily throughout the football season, you will be up to date with all of the important news, trends and key statistics in order to increase your winnings over the long haul.
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NFL Home Dogs barked loudly in Week 1
2010-09-14
For football bettors that see value in underdogs playing at home, NFL Week 1 was most likely a profitable one. Home ‘dogs ended up covering five of their eight games. Even more impressive, all five covers also resulted in straight up victories. Houston, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Washington all prevailed while getting points at home.
The opening point spreads at Sportsbook.com for week two provide just three such opportunities: Detroit (+4) hosting Philadelphia, Washington (+3) entertaining Houston, and San Francisco (+5) welcoming New Orleans.
Home favorites went 5-2-1 ATS, 7-1 SU. The NY Jets were the only home team to lose SU. Chicago, a straight up winner but ATS loser, and Tampa Bay, who won SU but pushed, were the other two home favorites who failed to cover.
Last year’s bottom feeders ATS made positive impressions in week one. Detroit, worst in the NFL at 4-10-2 ATS in 2009, covered the number against Chicago and many believe they should have won the game outright based on the controversial incompletion call at the end of their heartbreaking loss to the Bears. Jacksonville, 5-11 ATS last year including 0-4 in their last four games, was an impressive ATS and SU winner over Denver, who was a respectable 9-7 ATS a season ago. Pittsburgh, 5-10-1 ATS last year when they failed to earn the opportunity to defend their Super Bowl title in the playoffs, knocked off Atlanta as a home underdog in week one. Seattle, tied for fourth worst last year ATS, may be gaining some believers under first-year head coach Pete Carroll after their resounding upset win over the well-regarded San Francisco 49ers. Last year in the college ranks, Carroll and USC were an uncharacteristic 4-9 ATS after three consecutive winning seasons ATS (8-5, 7-6, 7-6).
It was not the best of weekends for the six teams that represented the AFC in last year’s playoffs. New England and Baltimore both beat the spread and won their games, but Cincinnati, the Jets, Indianapolis and San Diego all lost both ATS and outright. Granted, the Bengals and Jets lost to fellow playoff teams in the Patriots and Ravens, respectively, but the two squads that were not facing a playoff participant from a year ago, the Colts and Chargers, failed to deliver as favorites.
NFC playoff teams from a year ago performed slightly better, going 3-3 both ATS and SU. Green Bay and New Orleans won ATS and outright over 2009 postseason alums Philly and Minnesota, respectively. While Arizona got the job done both ATS and SU against last year’s cellar dwelling St. Louis Rams, Dallas could not take care of its business on the road against rival Washington.
Divisionally speaking, no division went a perfect 4-for-4 ATS. The AFC South was the only division to go 3-1 ATS (also 3-1 SU), with the only loss coming in the intra-divisional matchup between Houston and Indianapolis. On the flip side, no division went 0-for-4 ATS, but the AFC West went 1-3 both ATS and SU, with the only win occurring in the intra-divisional clash between Kansas City and San Diego.
Whether you see value in home dogs or love to back favorites playing at home, head over to Sportsbook.com now to make your Week 2 NFL picks.
NFL: Top 3 AFC Teams Preview
2010-05-24
NFL: BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-11-16
Week 10 wraps up with the second inter-divisional game in the AFC North between Baltimore and Cleveland, as the Ravens visit the Dawg Pound. The Browns have had two weeks to get ready, making it a very dangerous spot for the Ravens, coming off the loss at Cincinnati and facing a second straight rested divisional foe on the road. An 11-point chalk line greets the Ravens as they land in Cleveland, and 97% of bettors at Sportsbook.com are ignoring the rich history of the double-digit home dog on Monday Night Football, choosing instead to back Baltimore in a rout.
Obviously, Baltimore (-10.5) is expected to win here, and the favorite has been the way to go in Cleveland’s post-bye week games, 7-1 ATS in L8. However, the Ravens have struggled in Cleveland of late, going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their L5 visits. The Browns are looking to snap a 6-game losing streak vs. divisional foes, but they are 2-1 ATS in that scenario in ’09. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS on the divisional road under John Harbaugh.
Even the biggest of Browns fans is fed up. “Dawg Pound Mike,” whose real name is Mike Randall, could have more of an impact Monday night than anyone in uniform. The longtime season-ticket holder in the front row of the rowdy end zone bleacher section is encouraging fans to stay away from their seats for the opening kickoff of this game against Baltimore to send a message to owner Randy Lerner about the sad state of the franchise.
The Browns, off to a 1-7 start under new head coach Eric Mangini and well on their way to an eighth double-digit loss season since 1999, haven’t won at home this year and overall have been outscored by a 209-78 margin. They’ve scored only five offensive touchdowns in 2009, and quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn have combined for three touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. Even Josh Cribbs, the team’s most spectacular player, has been picked off.
The protest, announced on the website www.mobiledawg.com, brought an electronic response from Lerner, who even met with Randall.
“On the grounds of frustration and irritation with performance, then that’s the medicine I (we) are going to take, and I accept that,” Lerner wrote in an e-mail. “The goal this year was to rebuild the culture at the Browns. We felt at the end of last year that we lacked any overall philosophy, approach or direction regarding recruiting, drafting, coaching, preparation or training. As a result, each season was feeling like starting over and 4-12 following 10-6 felt painfully not all that surprising.”
Cleveland will need a lot of luck to match last year’s win total, and it would be stunning if it turns the table on the Ravens and avenges a 34-3 loss in Week 3. By rolling out Anderson again, Mangini would be sending his own message to fans. The former Pro Bowl quarterback has thrown at least one interception in each of his six appearances this year, including three at Baltimore in relief of Quinn. Remarkably, Anderson’s completed 12 or fewer passes in four of five starts.
The Ravens racked up 479 total yards in the first meeting, with quarterback Joe Flacco throwing for 342 and a score and the backfield combination of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee combining for 115 and three touchdowns.
PREDICTION
It’ll be interesting to see how many seats will be empty come 8:30 p.m. eastern time on Monday. It’s likely to be in the hundreds, if not the thousands, making Randall the biggest difference-maker on the home side. The Browns could make it interesting. BALTIMORE 20, CLEVELAND 13
NFLPS: Preseason first full week offers profitable angles
2009-08-13
I’ve heard this famous quote before: “The past is behind, learn from it. The future is ahead, prepare for it. The present is here, live it.” If you analyze the quote in terms of how it relates to sports betting, I would think it is pushing us to study past trends and stats, then capitalize on them by executing winning wagers now and in the future. With that thought in mind, I went back and dug through the results of the first full week of preseason football since 2000 and was able to uncover some definitive betting angles that have developed, simply based on pointspreads, totals, and their movements. Take a look and see if you can’t put these trends to good use this weekend. Then head over to the LIVE ODDS page to get in on the action.
The first thing you’ll want to acknowledge about the first week of the exhibition season is that in general, it’s not a good idea to lay points. After all, how do you take comfort in backing a favorite when you’re not even sure how into winning that team will be. The other factor to consider is that most of the games are lower scoring. Throw out all stats from last year’s regular season, and understand that these teams are only in the beginning stages of their preparation for the regular season. Most of the offenses only began working against the defense days ago.
Here are some more specific pointspread trends and the games they’ll be affecting this weekend:
1. Overall, road teams own a 72-60-9 ATS (54.5%) record in the preseason’s first full week since 2000.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Washington, New England, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina.
2. Road Underdogs of 4-points or more are 9-10 SU but 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in the first full week of the preseason since ’00.
* Projected plays for ’09 – St. Louis
3. Over the last nine years, Road Underdogs of +1 to +3.5 points are 40-55 SU but 50-38-7 ATS (56.8%) in the upcoming week of the preseason.
* Projected plays for ’09 - Washington, New England, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina.
4. Home Underdogs are 13-11 SU & 14-8-2 ATS (63.6%) in the preseason’s official Week 1 since 2000.
* Projected plays for ’09 - None
5. When the line has moved toward the home team, the opposing road team owns a 25-16-1 ATS mark in the first week of the preseason since ’00.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Dallas, New England, St. Louis, Chicago, Atlanta.
6. When the line has moved 2-points or more, the “betting public” owns a record of just 16-19 ATS (45.7%) in the first full week of the preseason since ’00. In other words, go against the money.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Dallas, Atlanta.
7. Concerning totals, since 2000, in the first full week of the NFL’s exhibition season, UNDER’s own an edge of 81-59 (57.9%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – ALL GAMES UNDER
8. In past games of the opening week of the preseason with totals set at 33.5 or less, the UNDER owns a record of 22-10 (68.8%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – Play UNDER in Washington-Baltimore, St. Louis-NY Jets, Chicago-Buffalo, Jacksonville-Miami, and Carolina-NY Giants
9. In games with a total movement either way in the first full week of the preseason since ’00, the UNDER is 65-45 for 59.0%.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Play UNDER in all games but Houston-Kansas City as of Wednesday afternoon.
10. Over the last nine years, when the total has moved 2-points or more prior to game time of any opening week preseason game, the UNDER is 13-10 (56.5%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – NONE as of 8/12, 5:15 PM.
Keep in mind, all of the trends denoting line movements, are as of data on Wednesday, August 12th at 5:15 PM CT. Be sure to follow the consensus LIVE ODDS on StatFox for the latest updates if you choose to follow these trends this weekend.
For more on all of this week’s games, see the GAME MATCHUPS page.
NFL: Late Afternoon Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-11-28
Three games grace the NFL late afternoon betting board, highlighted by Pittsburgh traveling to Foxboro to take on the Patriots in a battle of AFC playoff contenders. Elsewhere, the Chargers hope to keep their feint postseason hopes alive when they welcome Atlanta to town. The Falcons find themselves in the thick of things in the NFC. A little up the coast, Oakland hosts Kansas City in a game with little meaning other than the 3-point line accompanying it. See who your colleagues are siding with in these games by visiting the BETTING TRENDS page.
(405) ATLANTA at (406) SAN DIEGO
Atlanta and San Diego are in positions where they can’t afford to lose too many more games to keep their playoff hopes in place. Of course, after last week’s win over Carolina, Atlanta’s room for error is much greater. Nothing shy of a second ever franchise win over the Falcons will do for San Diego. The Chargers are just 1-6 all-time vs. Atlanta, having not won in the head-to-head series since ’88. Other trends wouldn’t indicate the Chargers have the edge here though. They are 10-2 ATS in their L12 vs. good rushing teams averaging 130 RYPG or more, while Atlanta has gone just 9-25 in the second half of the season vs. good offenses scoring 24 PPG or more. However, the Falcons are on an 11-5 ATS run vs. the AFC, including two wins in ’08.
StatFox Power Line says: San Diego by 5
(407) PITTSBURGH at (408) NEW ENGLAND
Pittsburgh visited New England in a high profile game a year ago and in the face of guarantees by Steelers’ players, the Patriots prevailed 34-13. The extra motivation helped propel New England to its only ATS win in its final nine games of the ’07 season. Well, in ’08, the stakes are again high for the teams’ week 13 matchup, with 8-3 Pittsburgh leading the AFC North and the 7-4 Pats in the thick of the playoff race as well. HC Bill Belichick’s team has owned the Steelers of late, going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in the L8 head-to-head meeting. New England also owns the matchup edge, with a 22-9 ATS home record vs. good defenses giving up 17 PPG or less. HC Mike Tomlin’s team has played very well on the road though, going 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS while allowing just 3.9 YPP.
StatFox Game Estimator says: New England 22, Pittsburgh 20
(409) KANSAS CITY at (410) OAKLAND
In the span of the last 20 weeks of NFL regular season action, the Chiefs and Raiders have won just six games combined. As crazy as it sounds, Oakland owns five of those victories, the latest coming in a huge upset last week in Denver. Kansas City has been that bad, losing 19 of its L20 games, a franchise mark for futility. HC Herm Edwards’ team may have hit rock bottom in losing to Buffalo, allowing 51 points. Over their L7 games, the Chiefs are allowing 32.4 PPG. However, they are 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in Oakland. Even though the Raiders (-3) are favored for the first time in 20 games, it remains to be seen whether they can take advantage. They are on a 0-6 ATS run as home chalk, and own a 2-10 ATS record vs. bad defenses yielding 5.65 yards per play or more.
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating says: Oakland by 4
NFL: Late afternoon starts (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-09-26
The late afternoon wagering card in the NFL is a light one with just three games. The NFC East showdown between Washington and Dallas highlights the action. Take a look at what’s in store and be sure to check the BETTING TRENDS page for where your betting colleagues at Sportsbook.com are sending their money.
(211) BUFFALO at (212) ST LOUIS
St. Louis has been downright awful in the first three games while going 0-3 SU & ATS for the second straight season. The Rams have been outscored by 29 PPG, and are quite possibly the worst team in the NFL at this point. In Week 4, they will be hosting a Bills’ club that has been quite the opposite, starting 3-0 for the first time since the ‘90’s. They are all alone atop the AFC East Division too. Buffalo takes to the road for the second time in ’08, looking to extend a 10-7 ATS mark under Dick Jauron. His clubs have also been solid versus NFC foes, going 6-3 ATS in his tenure. HC Scott Linehan of St. Louis is on the hot seat, if he makes it through the week. Since a 5-1 ATS start in ’06, his team is just 9-20 against the number, including 3-11 ATS at home.
(213) SAN DIEGO at (214) OAKLAND
Both trying to keep pace with Denver in the AFC West Division, longtime rivals San Diego and Oakland will go head-to-head on Sunday. For the Raiders, it will be the first home game since the ugly season opening loss to Denver. That was Oakland’s 11th home loss in its L13 games, a span in which they’ve gone just 3-10 ATS. They are 10-22 ATS in their L32 as a home dog. Since opening night, HC Lane Kiffin’s team has played better, winning at Kansas City then pushing unbeaten Buffalo to the last seconds before losing on a late field goal. The Chargers played last on Monday vs. the Jets and will face a short week of preparation. They are on a 6-1 ATS run vs. division foes under Norv Turner. This game starts a stretch of four road games in a month for them.
(215) WASHINGTON at (216) DALLAS
With both teams coming off big wins, longtime rivals Washington and Dallas play perhaps for the final time at Texas Stadium. The Redskins won’t be upset to see the doors close at this stadium, considering they are just 2-14 SU & 5-11 ATS in their L16 visits. This is a key game for Washington though, as their two straight victories have kept them within a game of the competitive NFC East lead. Amazingly, at this point, the division has put up a combined record of 10-2. Dallas is a big part of that, off the win at Green Bay. The Cowboys are on a 0-3 ATS run at home, as well as just 1-5 ATS at home versus division opponents. After the two home wins, Washington will be looking to improve on a 6-11 ATS stretch on the road, including 3-4 ATS vs. NFC East foes.
NFL – Dallas at Carolina (8:15 PM ET – NFL Network)
2007-12-21
Dallas seems to be losing its stride as the regular season winds down and in faces two more road games in the quest for clinching home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
The Cowboys are back in a tie with Green Bay for that top spot but still control their own destiny. This week’s Saturday night opponent is Carolina, a team that has remarkably won its last two games at home after dropping the prior six. This past Sunday, the Panthers upset Seattle and they would love to do the same to Dallas as a near double-digit underdog. The dog in this head-to-head series is on a 5-4 SU & 6-2 ATS run, including outright wins the last two years in Charlotte by Dallas. HC John Fox’s team is 7-0 ATS in its L7 as an underdog of 7.5-14 points.
With the NFC all but wrapped, the Dallas Cowboys have turned their attentions to bigger and better goals… like bad mouthing former coach Bill Parcells in the press. Observers with a memory would warn that Terrell Owens’ recent actions have served as the predecessor to strife in the past. He has been the key to Dallas’ prolific offensive effort thus far and losing his focus could spell trouble. Of course, the contributions from a strong defense and RB Marion Barber could lay those worries to rest.
Carolina is once again left with questions of what was and could have been following yet another disappointing campaign. The Panthers have been listed as a preseason favorite to lead the NFC towards the playoffs in each of the last five seasons, yet they have failed to formulate a plan of success. Such has been the case in 2007 with an offense that fails without leader Jake Delhomme at QB. The defense is strong but is often left without support, bringing us to low expectations for the week once again.
Keys to the Game
After winning the division crown for the first time in nine seasons, Dallas looks for more in the NFC. The first order of business is to take care of the defense, which has had lagging. With Carolina being one of the worst offenses in the NFL, this should be the elixir the Cowboys seek. Dallas is 12-3 ATS after playing the Eagles. Carolina is playing like a dead team and John Fox and GM Marty Hurney might be walking the plank. The Cats are a lamentable 2-11 ATS against the NFC East.
Trends
~ Dallas is 20-12 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 contests.
~ Carolina is 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.
StatFox Pick – Cowboys cover
2010-09-14
For football bettors that see value in underdogs playing at home, NFL Week 1 was most likely a profitable one. Home ‘dogs ended up covering five of their eight games. Even more impressive, all five covers also resulted in straight up victories. Houston, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Washington all prevailed while getting points at home.
The opening point spreads at Sportsbook.com for week two provide just three such opportunities: Detroit (+4) hosting Philadelphia, Washington (+3) entertaining Houston, and San Francisco (+5) welcoming New Orleans.
Home favorites went 5-2-1 ATS, 7-1 SU. The NY Jets were the only home team to lose SU. Chicago, a straight up winner but ATS loser, and Tampa Bay, who won SU but pushed, were the other two home favorites who failed to cover.
Last year’s bottom feeders ATS made positive impressions in week one. Detroit, worst in the NFL at 4-10-2 ATS in 2009, covered the number against Chicago and many believe they should have won the game outright based on the controversial incompletion call at the end of their heartbreaking loss to the Bears. Jacksonville, 5-11 ATS last year including 0-4 in their last four games, was an impressive ATS and SU winner over Denver, who was a respectable 9-7 ATS a season ago. Pittsburgh, 5-10-1 ATS last year when they failed to earn the opportunity to defend their Super Bowl title in the playoffs, knocked off Atlanta as a home underdog in week one. Seattle, tied for fourth worst last year ATS, may be gaining some believers under first-year head coach Pete Carroll after their resounding upset win over the well-regarded San Francisco 49ers. Last year in the college ranks, Carroll and USC were an uncharacteristic 4-9 ATS after three consecutive winning seasons ATS (8-5, 7-6, 7-6).
It was not the best of weekends for the six teams that represented the AFC in last year’s playoffs. New England and Baltimore both beat the spread and won their games, but Cincinnati, the Jets, Indianapolis and San Diego all lost both ATS and outright. Granted, the Bengals and Jets lost to fellow playoff teams in the Patriots and Ravens, respectively, but the two squads that were not facing a playoff participant from a year ago, the Colts and Chargers, failed to deliver as favorites.
NFC playoff teams from a year ago performed slightly better, going 3-3 both ATS and SU. Green Bay and New Orleans won ATS and outright over 2009 postseason alums Philly and Minnesota, respectively. While Arizona got the job done both ATS and SU against last year’s cellar dwelling St. Louis Rams, Dallas could not take care of its business on the road against rival Washington.
Divisionally speaking, no division went a perfect 4-for-4 ATS. The AFC South was the only division to go 3-1 ATS (also 3-1 SU), with the only loss coming in the intra-divisional matchup between Houston and Indianapolis. On the flip side, no division went 0-for-4 ATS, but the AFC West went 1-3 both ATS and SU, with the only win occurring in the intra-divisional clash between Kansas City and San Diego.
Whether you see value in home dogs or love to back favorites playing at home, head over to Sportsbook.com now to make your Week 2 NFL picks.
NFL: Top 3 AFC Teams Preview
2010-05-24
The AFC will feature a great deal of powerhouses this season. From Indy and Pittsburgh to New England, the division showcases teams that have ruled the last decade. I only have room for three on this list, however. Here is how I see things shaking up; all you NFL betting folks pay attention:
- The New England Patriots: The team that has won more Super Bowls than anyone one in the past decade comes in at number one on my list. The Pats have a healthy Tom Brady, an older but still effective receiving core, and a few key draft picks to bolster the Achilles’ heel of last season the defense. With all that said, the Pats are not getting any younger. I believe, however, the Hoodie will steer this ship one more time to an AFC Championship, and so do most of the NFL betting crowd.
- The Indianapolis Colts: The favorite in the minds of most people in the sporting world, the Colts come in at number two on my list. Yes, they still have Peyton Manning and the rest of the crowd, but they have only made it to the top of the mountain once with this crew. All the stars aligned last year for the Colts to slide into the Super Bowl. They were able to dodge both of their biggest pains in the rear in San Diego and New England. Chances are that will not happen this year, and we will see the Colts bounced from the playoffs.
- The Baltimore Ravens: Matt Ryan might have gotten all the hype coming out of the draft a couple of years ago, but Joe Flacco has all the playoff wins. Yes, the defense is growing more than a little long in the tooth, but I believe they still have enough gas left in the tank to get the job done. And with the acquisition of Anquan Boldin, Joe Flacco has to be grinning from ear to ear these days. Look for Baltimore to one of the biggest bullies in the AFC.
This is how I believe things will shake up in the AFC. With injuries and the general craziness of the NFL, though, all of these teams could be turned upside down before the opening kickoff of the preseason. We will just have to wait and see how an always strong AFC plays out this year. Who are you betting on in the AFC this season? When it comes to NFL betting there is no site better than www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
NFL: BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-11-16
Week 10 wraps up with the second inter-divisional game in the AFC North between Baltimore and Cleveland, as the Ravens visit the Dawg Pound. The Browns have had two weeks to get ready, making it a very dangerous spot for the Ravens, coming off the loss at Cincinnati and facing a second straight rested divisional foe on the road. An 11-point chalk line greets the Ravens as they land in Cleveland, and 97% of bettors at Sportsbook.com are ignoring the rich history of the double-digit home dog on Monday Night Football, choosing instead to back Baltimore in a rout.
Obviously, Baltimore (-10.5) is expected to win here, and the favorite has been the way to go in Cleveland’s post-bye week games, 7-1 ATS in L8. However, the Ravens have struggled in Cleveland of late, going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their L5 visits. The Browns are looking to snap a 6-game losing streak vs. divisional foes, but they are 2-1 ATS in that scenario in ’09. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS on the divisional road under John Harbaugh.
Even the biggest of Browns fans is fed up. “Dawg Pound Mike,” whose real name is Mike Randall, could have more of an impact Monday night than anyone in uniform. The longtime season-ticket holder in the front row of the rowdy end zone bleacher section is encouraging fans to stay away from their seats for the opening kickoff of this game against Baltimore to send a message to owner Randy Lerner about the sad state of the franchise.
The Browns, off to a 1-7 start under new head coach Eric Mangini and well on their way to an eighth double-digit loss season since 1999, haven’t won at home this year and overall have been outscored by a 209-78 margin. They’ve scored only five offensive touchdowns in 2009, and quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn have combined for three touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. Even Josh Cribbs, the team’s most spectacular player, has been picked off.
The protest, announced on the website www.mobiledawg.com, brought an electronic response from Lerner, who even met with Randall.
“On the grounds of frustration and irritation with performance, then that’s the medicine I (we) are going to take, and I accept that,” Lerner wrote in an e-mail. “The goal this year was to rebuild the culture at the Browns. We felt at the end of last year that we lacked any overall philosophy, approach or direction regarding recruiting, drafting, coaching, preparation or training. As a result, each season was feeling like starting over and 4-12 following 10-6 felt painfully not all that surprising.”
Cleveland will need a lot of luck to match last year’s win total, and it would be stunning if it turns the table on the Ravens and avenges a 34-3 loss in Week 3. By rolling out Anderson again, Mangini would be sending his own message to fans. The former Pro Bowl quarterback has thrown at least one interception in each of his six appearances this year, including three at Baltimore in relief of Quinn. Remarkably, Anderson’s completed 12 or fewer passes in four of five starts.
The Ravens racked up 479 total yards in the first meeting, with quarterback Joe Flacco throwing for 342 and a score and the backfield combination of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee combining for 115 and three touchdowns.
PREDICTION
It’ll be interesting to see how many seats will be empty come 8:30 p.m. eastern time on Monday. It’s likely to be in the hundreds, if not the thousands, making Randall the biggest difference-maker on the home side. The Browns could make it interesting. BALTIMORE 20, CLEVELAND 13
NFLPS: Preseason first full week offers profitable angles
2009-08-13
I’ve heard this famous quote before: “The past is behind, learn from it. The future is ahead, prepare for it. The present is here, live it.” If you analyze the quote in terms of how it relates to sports betting, I would think it is pushing us to study past trends and stats, then capitalize on them by executing winning wagers now and in the future. With that thought in mind, I went back and dug through the results of the first full week of preseason football since 2000 and was able to uncover some definitive betting angles that have developed, simply based on pointspreads, totals, and their movements. Take a look and see if you can’t put these trends to good use this weekend. Then head over to the LIVE ODDS page to get in on the action.
The first thing you’ll want to acknowledge about the first week of the exhibition season is that in general, it’s not a good idea to lay points. After all, how do you take comfort in backing a favorite when you’re not even sure how into winning that team will be. The other factor to consider is that most of the games are lower scoring. Throw out all stats from last year’s regular season, and understand that these teams are only in the beginning stages of their preparation for the regular season. Most of the offenses only began working against the defense days ago.
Here are some more specific pointspread trends and the games they’ll be affecting this weekend:
1. Overall, road teams own a 72-60-9 ATS (54.5%) record in the preseason’s first full week since 2000.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Washington, New England, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina.
2. Road Underdogs of 4-points or more are 9-10 SU but 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in the first full week of the preseason since ’00.
* Projected plays for ’09 – St. Louis
3. Over the last nine years, Road Underdogs of +1 to +3.5 points are 40-55 SU but 50-38-7 ATS (56.8%) in the upcoming week of the preseason.
* Projected plays for ’09 - Washington, New England, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina.
4. Home Underdogs are 13-11 SU & 14-8-2 ATS (63.6%) in the preseason’s official Week 1 since 2000.
* Projected plays for ’09 - None
5. When the line has moved toward the home team, the opposing road team owns a 25-16-1 ATS mark in the first week of the preseason since ’00.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Dallas, New England, St. Louis, Chicago, Atlanta.
6. When the line has moved 2-points or more, the “betting public” owns a record of just 16-19 ATS (45.7%) in the first full week of the preseason since ’00. In other words, go against the money.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Dallas, Atlanta.
7. Concerning totals, since 2000, in the first full week of the NFL’s exhibition season, UNDER’s own an edge of 81-59 (57.9%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – ALL GAMES UNDER
8. In past games of the opening week of the preseason with totals set at 33.5 or less, the UNDER owns a record of 22-10 (68.8%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – Play UNDER in Washington-Baltimore, St. Louis-NY Jets, Chicago-Buffalo, Jacksonville-Miami, and Carolina-NY Giants
9. In games with a total movement either way in the first full week of the preseason since ’00, the UNDER is 65-45 for 59.0%.
* Projected plays for ’09 – Play UNDER in all games but Houston-Kansas City as of Wednesday afternoon.
10. Over the last nine years, when the total has moved 2-points or more prior to game time of any opening week preseason game, the UNDER is 13-10 (56.5%).
* Projected plays for ’09 – NONE as of 8/12, 5:15 PM.
Keep in mind, all of the trends denoting line movements, are as of data on Wednesday, August 12th at 5:15 PM CT. Be sure to follow the consensus LIVE ODDS on StatFox for the latest updates if you choose to follow these trends this weekend.
For more on all of this week’s games, see the GAME MATCHUPS page.
NFL: Late Afternoon Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-11-28
Three games grace the NFL late afternoon betting board, highlighted by Pittsburgh traveling to Foxboro to take on the Patriots in a battle of AFC playoff contenders. Elsewhere, the Chargers hope to keep their feint postseason hopes alive when they welcome Atlanta to town. The Falcons find themselves in the thick of things in the NFC. A little up the coast, Oakland hosts Kansas City in a game with little meaning other than the 3-point line accompanying it. See who your colleagues are siding with in these games by visiting the BETTING TRENDS page.
(405) ATLANTA at (406) SAN DIEGO
Atlanta and San Diego are in positions where they can’t afford to lose too many more games to keep their playoff hopes in place. Of course, after last week’s win over Carolina, Atlanta’s room for error is much greater. Nothing shy of a second ever franchise win over the Falcons will do for San Diego. The Chargers are just 1-6 all-time vs. Atlanta, having not won in the head-to-head series since ’88. Other trends wouldn’t indicate the Chargers have the edge here though. They are 10-2 ATS in their L12 vs. good rushing teams averaging 130 RYPG or more, while Atlanta has gone just 9-25 in the second half of the season vs. good offenses scoring 24 PPG or more. However, the Falcons are on an 11-5 ATS run vs. the AFC, including two wins in ’08.
StatFox Power Line says: San Diego by 5
(407) PITTSBURGH at (408) NEW ENGLAND
Pittsburgh visited New England in a high profile game a year ago and in the face of guarantees by Steelers’ players, the Patriots prevailed 34-13. The extra motivation helped propel New England to its only ATS win in its final nine games of the ’07 season. Well, in ’08, the stakes are again high for the teams’ week 13 matchup, with 8-3 Pittsburgh leading the AFC North and the 7-4 Pats in the thick of the playoff race as well. HC Bill Belichick’s team has owned the Steelers of late, going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in the L8 head-to-head meeting. New England also owns the matchup edge, with a 22-9 ATS home record vs. good defenses giving up 17 PPG or less. HC Mike Tomlin’s team has played very well on the road though, going 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS while allowing just 3.9 YPP.
StatFox Game Estimator says: New England 22, Pittsburgh 20
(409) KANSAS CITY at (410) OAKLAND
In the span of the last 20 weeks of NFL regular season action, the Chiefs and Raiders have won just six games combined. As crazy as it sounds, Oakland owns five of those victories, the latest coming in a huge upset last week in Denver. Kansas City has been that bad, losing 19 of its L20 games, a franchise mark for futility. HC Herm Edwards’ team may have hit rock bottom in losing to Buffalo, allowing 51 points. Over their L7 games, the Chiefs are allowing 32.4 PPG. However, they are 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in Oakland. Even though the Raiders (-3) are favored for the first time in 20 games, it remains to be seen whether they can take advantage. They are on a 0-6 ATS run as home chalk, and own a 2-10 ATS record vs. bad defenses yielding 5.65 yards per play or more.
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating says: Oakland by 4
NFL: Late afternoon starts (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-09-26
The late afternoon wagering card in the NFL is a light one with just three games. The NFC East showdown between Washington and Dallas highlights the action. Take a look at what’s in store and be sure to check the BETTING TRENDS page for where your betting colleagues at Sportsbook.com are sending their money.
(211) BUFFALO at (212) ST LOUIS
St. Louis has been downright awful in the first three games while going 0-3 SU & ATS for the second straight season. The Rams have been outscored by 29 PPG, and are quite possibly the worst team in the NFL at this point. In Week 4, they will be hosting a Bills’ club that has been quite the opposite, starting 3-0 for the first time since the ‘90’s. They are all alone atop the AFC East Division too. Buffalo takes to the road for the second time in ’08, looking to extend a 10-7 ATS mark under Dick Jauron. His clubs have also been solid versus NFC foes, going 6-3 ATS in his tenure. HC Scott Linehan of St. Louis is on the hot seat, if he makes it through the week. Since a 5-1 ATS start in ’06, his team is just 9-20 against the number, including 3-11 ATS at home.
(213) SAN DIEGO at (214) OAKLAND
Both trying to keep pace with Denver in the AFC West Division, longtime rivals San Diego and Oakland will go head-to-head on Sunday. For the Raiders, it will be the first home game since the ugly season opening loss to Denver. That was Oakland’s 11th home loss in its L13 games, a span in which they’ve gone just 3-10 ATS. They are 10-22 ATS in their L32 as a home dog. Since opening night, HC Lane Kiffin’s team has played better, winning at Kansas City then pushing unbeaten Buffalo to the last seconds before losing on a late field goal. The Chargers played last on Monday vs. the Jets and will face a short week of preparation. They are on a 6-1 ATS run vs. division foes under Norv Turner. This game starts a stretch of four road games in a month for them.
(215) WASHINGTON at (216) DALLAS
With both teams coming off big wins, longtime rivals Washington and Dallas play perhaps for the final time at Texas Stadium. The Redskins won’t be upset to see the doors close at this stadium, considering they are just 2-14 SU & 5-11 ATS in their L16 visits. This is a key game for Washington though, as their two straight victories have kept them within a game of the competitive NFC East lead. Amazingly, at this point, the division has put up a combined record of 10-2. Dallas is a big part of that, off the win at Green Bay. The Cowboys are on a 0-3 ATS run at home, as well as just 1-5 ATS at home versus division opponents. After the two home wins, Washington will be looking to improve on a 6-11 ATS stretch on the road, including 3-4 ATS vs. NFC East foes.
NFL – Dallas at Carolina (8:15 PM ET – NFL Network)
2007-12-21
Dallas seems to be losing its stride as the regular season winds down and in faces two more road games in the quest for clinching home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
The Cowboys are back in a tie with Green Bay for that top spot but still control their own destiny. This week’s Saturday night opponent is Carolina, a team that has remarkably won its last two games at home after dropping the prior six. This past Sunday, the Panthers upset Seattle and they would love to do the same to Dallas as a near double-digit underdog. The dog in this head-to-head series is on a 5-4 SU & 6-2 ATS run, including outright wins the last two years in Charlotte by Dallas. HC John Fox’s team is 7-0 ATS in its L7 as an underdog of 7.5-14 points.
With the NFC all but wrapped, the Dallas Cowboys have turned their attentions to bigger and better goals… like bad mouthing former coach Bill Parcells in the press. Observers with a memory would warn that Terrell Owens’ recent actions have served as the predecessor to strife in the past. He has been the key to Dallas’ prolific offensive effort thus far and losing his focus could spell trouble. Of course, the contributions from a strong defense and RB Marion Barber could lay those worries to rest.
Carolina is once again left with questions of what was and could have been following yet another disappointing campaign. The Panthers have been listed as a preseason favorite to lead the NFC towards the playoffs in each of the last five seasons, yet they have failed to formulate a plan of success. Such has been the case in 2007 with an offense that fails without leader Jake Delhomme at QB. The defense is strong but is often left without support, bringing us to low expectations for the week once again.
Keys to the Game
After winning the division crown for the first time in nine seasons, Dallas looks for more in the NFC. The first order of business is to take care of the defense, which has had lagging. With Carolina being one of the worst offenses in the NFL, this should be the elixir the Cowboys seek. Dallas is 12-3 ATS after playing the Eagles. Carolina is playing like a dead team and John Fox and GM Marty Hurney might be walking the plank. The Cats are a lamentable 2-11 ATS against the NFC East.
Trends
~ Dallas is 20-12 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 contests.
~ Carolina is 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.
StatFox Pick – Cowboys cover